The Rise of the Kondratyev Social Cycle

Abstract

This paper attempts to put into perspective the specifics of the Social Cycle and how it impacts the current Long Wave.  While typically the 20-25 year Up Grade to the Long Wave is viewed as a period of economic expansion and prosperity, it is also a period of turbulence and social strife.  The creation of wealth triggers issues of wealth distribution and changes in social values.  In this paper we attempt to analyze the emergence of new social issues and relate them to past cycles for validity.

Overview

Simplistically the Long Wave is divided into a 26 year up grade followed by an equal period of consolidation or as Mr. K put it a period of cleansing.  Typically the cycle is divided into a period of inflation and economic growth and a period of deflation and economic contraction.  But such a division misses much of the other important interactions that take place under the hood.

One of the artifacts of the Long Wave is the development of a parallel Social Cycle.  As growth makes possible activities and innovations not previously available, people have to adjust.  After all an economy only exists as a result of human activity.  Looking at past cycles some of these conflicts are consistent and easy to project, others come from reactions to innovation.  The latter is very important to consider and will in the end make up the majority content of this paper.  

We will begin first to look at technology and how over the past 100-150 years society has evolved to cope with the massive innovations of industrialization and technology .  We will examine the differences in reactions from periods where the Down Grade dominated to the break away of social values and attitudes during the Up Grade.

Development of the Social Cycle

The first thing to examine is how the social cycle develops as artifact of growth.  For the best view the past couple cycles are the most convenient.  Modern times are not so different from any period of history, only exaggerated by the technology, communication and the speed of development.  The social cycle is really a direct reaction of growth.  Without growth and forced changes to the economy the social structure of society remains in equilibrium.  Economic growth and innovation place strains on society to re-define moral values and rules governing behavior.

Feminism - For example, the move towards feminism and equal rights for women is typical of all Up Grades.  The manifestation of feminism can take many forms.  It is best to look at the last two cycles for a clear picture. Although the move to abolish slavery started as a feminist movement culminating at a Long Wave peak with the Civil War.

Feminism of the 1900-20 took the Victorian morality and progressed it to the age of flappers. Quite a departure when you stop to think about it.  Along the way women go the right to vote and prohibition was passed.  The peak of the 1900-20 cycle culminated in 1919 with the passing of suffrage for women. 

In the last cycle (1949-72)  the pill drove women to move from housewives into all levels of education and industry.  The1972 passage of the Equal Rights Amendment (yet to be ratified) terminated the US feminist movement.

From these peak points feminism like all social events consolidated, became accepted and gained validity, but the trend did not strike out in new directions.  This is typical for the progression of the social cycle.  Gains are made in the Up Grade and consolidation and refinement in the down grade.  Some of the more radical elements of the trend became discredited..

Take a look at the connotation of the word Feminism today. In the late 1960's and early 1970s it was a very popular term conjuring up images of a struggle for freedom, equal treatment on the job, freedom from early motherhood and higher education.  Today the connotation has shifted to represent the fringe and in many cases only applying to gay women.

Catalysts 

During the Down Grade two very important events come together that spark the creation of the social cycle.  

Geopolitical Alliances - The Down Grade is a period of vast changes in political boundaries and alliances.  Some of these changes come from war, others in the form of Trade Agreements and Treaties and finally in changes in government.  Through most of the Up Grade the alliances created at the end of the Down Grade define what the world looks like politically.  There are of course exceptions but these generally occur at the periphery. 

Innovation - Innovation creates prosperity but in its wake often social chaos.  The internal combustion engine while a break through in the creation of wealth, also displaced agricultural workers in record numbers.  The surplus labor relocated to industrial centers keeping wages low and forcing the development of trade Unions, eventually leading to a socialist revolution and the Communist party.  This may sound simplistic, but it really is not.  The surplus of labor against the massive profits of the few from manufacturing created the demand for the re-distribution of wealth.  The intensity of the trend towards socialism was driven by the sheer numbers displayed by innovation.

Fall of Communism

Newtonian Physics states for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction.  The same can be applied to economics at times.  To understand today's political landscape it is necessary to look at the factors that gave rise to the Socialist Revolution   

The need or demand for the re-distribution of wealth was foundered on the just the success that created the wealth. Better living conditions, medicine, better agricultural methods and the manufacture of goods all combined to increase life spans and reduce infant morality.  As a result the late 1800's and early 1900's saw a surplus of labor that reduced real wages or living conditions for a large sector of the economy.  The culmination of this surplus was the depth of the 1930's depression and brutality of WW II.  

Of course like much of the world today the problem was not one of wealth distribution, but of displaced and unskilled labor  

Today the trend is moving away from socialism in hurry.  It is no coincidence that the sectors moving away the fastest are the ones with acute labor shortages,

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ypically in a period of economic contraction all segments of society and the economy are impacted by 

als with the economic impact of recent events and how they map to the Long Wave.  While some suggestions will be made in how to attack the problem, they will primarily be in the context of the flow of events.  One of the better ways of making economic projections is to look for imbalances and pick the logical path of resolution.  

Background

The goal here is not to try to profit off a tragedy  The Long Wave is a very effective model for tracking and projecting future events.  Because the Long Wave makes the assumption that interaction is circular when viewed, one can use the theory both for profit and 

Copyright © 1974-2007 Kondratyev Wave Letters by Eric Von Baranov, Sausalito, CA USA